ks-agrar-rohstoffbrief-080708

I've been pretty jet lagged, and pretty much slept in all day.  John called me and told me about his run with the bulls and how he almost got nailed.  His friend got the close encounter on video, and John said he would put it on youtube.  I will post the link as soon as his friend puts it up.  He said he's going to do it again tomorrow, and that it was the most thrilling experience of his life.  I know where he got that gene.....

I've been depressed because tomorrow would be Denise's 50th birthday.  Oh well, a little strong drink should lift my spirits.

My spreads keep working, and I've added a few options positions  to the mix.  I find this grain market blowoff to be very fascinating to watch.  I haven't seen anything like this in many years, and am surprised to see my spreads still holding. 

I'm enjoying watching the oil market action.  The problem is that I don't know how or where to trade it at these levels and volume.  I'm still learning something every day. 

I've been paying particular attention to the AAPL $200 October calls.  I can't tell you why, but they look like an interesting trade. 

I was stupid today, and lost a nickel trying to scalp copper....when will I ever learn.  Don't trade while sleeping.....seriously, I was asleep when I put that trade on.

We had a real bad squall come through yesterday afternoon, and had a whole lot of lightning damage in the neighborhood, plus we got six inches of rain in two hours.  The center of the cell was on top of us for an hour, and it was as loud as hell for the whole hour.  I've never had a bolt hit within 100 feet of me before, and that got my attention.  The power was out all up and down my key, but my generator automatically kicked in and we had minimal power at our house.  Luckily, none of my computer or amateur radio equipment was damaged.  Oh well, tis the season.

I need to hunker down, make some money, finish my book, buy a new surfboard, and try to have some fun.  I also have a few ideas that I want to write for the gang over at Daily Speculations.  Now, that is a great website, and is probablhy the best site for speculators around.  I feel like the dumbest person in the room when I'm over at that site.  What a learning opportunity, and that site has taught an old spec like myself many a lesson.

Jeff

(Unfortunately, in going to blog about it, I found a half-finished blog that I just had to post, so I remain distracted.)

However, my course of action based on this article is to 1) Stop. Breathe. And be aware I am being distracted and  2) Focus. Turn off the interruptions and set some intentions for tackling that thesis.

No blogging from me until next week!

This vacation was about art, shopping, and just chilling at the Hotel. There was no real sightseeing involved, as we've done Paris many times before.  I heartily recommend the Hotel George V to anyone, although it's a little on the pricey side.  Their spa is the best I've ever been to, and I ended up having four different massages during my stay. I ended up using a lot of room service, and am prepared for a little sticker shock when we check out lter. John is completely exhausted and hung over, having partied non-stop for the whole week.  I don't know where he gets all that energy. 

 I've had trouble adjusting to the time lag, and have found myself in a state of perpetual fatigue.

  I barely saw John, and I was OK with that, as he had a real good time on this little vacation. 

I've been thinking a lot about surfing, and am missing my mother ocean.  I hope this next week brings something ridable.  It is my understanding that there is a storm brewing in the Atlantic, and that should kick up some swell.  Perhaps a trip over to Cocoa Beach will be in the works.  I really need to surf.  There is no way I could ever live more than a stone's throw from a beach.  As the old saying goes, "You grow up at the beach, have more fun than you deserve, move inland and die."  That's not on my agenda.  At least Denise got to die while listening to some waves, with me at her side, telling her how much I love her.

When I get home, I need to get back to reality, and do a more hands-on approach to managing my positions.  So far, I've kept my winners, but haven't been focused, allowing my stops to keep me out of danger.

I do know that the second thing I'm going to do when I get home is to go over to Larry Mayo's shop, and buy a new surfboard.  Larry shapes a first rate board, and I want one.  After that, I'm going to pig out on some BBQ.

 EDIT:  John isn't coming home with me, and is extending his stay for a couple of weeks. He's found other accommodations with friends, as the GeorgeV is a little much for a college student.  He booked a trip to Pamplona for a couple of days, and is planning on running with the bulls with some of his Yalie friends.  I thought about doing that, but decided on running next year....perhaps.

Jeff

Lugar: Córdoba Capital, Argentina.
Fecha: Desde el 07 al 13 de Julio del 2008.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Main Draw.

Primera Ronda

[1] Leandro Migani (ARG) a Guillermo Bujniewicz (ARG) 7-5/6-2
[Q] Federico Del Bonis (ARG) a [Q] Dennis Zivkovic (USA) 3-6/7-6(6)/7-6(4)
[Q] Juan Vazquez Valenzuela (ARG) a Marcos Conocente (ARG) 6-3/6-4 
[8] Federico Cavallero (ARG) a Sebastián Uriarte (ARG) 6-4/7-5
[3] [SE] Diego Alvarez (ARG) a Joaquín Monteferrario (ARG) 6-3/6-2
[Q] Ezequiel Dequino (ARG) a Leonel Alberti (ARG) 6-3/6-1 
[WC] Facundo Argüello (ARG) a [Q] Horacio Giussani (ARG) 6-4/6-2
[7] Lionel Noviski (ARG) a Facundo Bagnis (ARG) 6-1/6-2
[SE] Marco Trungelitti (ARG) a [6] Andrés Molteni (ARG) 2-6/7-6(8)/6-3 
Gastón Giusanni (ARG) a [Q] Javier Ottaviani (ARG) 6-4/6-2
Martín Ríos Benitez (ARG) a [WC] Emiliano Mina (ARG) 6-1/6-2
[4] Antonio Pastorino (ARG) a [Q] Pablo Perez (ARG) 6-4/6-1
[5] Juan Pablo Amado (ARG) a Agustín Picco (ARG) 7-6(11)/6-4
[Q] Bruno Mazziotti (ARG) a [WC] Juan Agasarkissian (ARG) 7-6(2)/7-6(3) 
Nicolás Jara Lozano (ARG) a Mariano Benedicti (ARG) 6-2/6-2
[2] Martín Alund (ARG) a [WC] Kevin Konfederak (ARG) 6-3/6-2 

Segunda Ronda:

[1] Leandro Migani (ARG) vs [Q] Federico Del Bonis (ARG)
[8] Federico Cavallero (ARG) vs [Q] Juan Vazquez Valenzuela (ARG)
[3] [SE] Diego Alvarez (ARG) vs [Q] Ezequiel Dequino (ARG)
[7] Lionel Noviski (ARG) vs [WC] Facundo Argüello (ARG)
[SE] Marco Trungelitti (ARG) vs Gastón Giusanni (ARG)
[4] Antonio Pastorino (ARG) vs Martín Ríos Benitez (ARG)
[5] Juan Pablo Amado (ARG) vs [Q] Bruno Mazziotti (ARG)
[2] Martín Alund (ARG) vs Nicolás Jara Lozano (ARG)

[Qualy.]

Con esta victoria sobre Álvarez, el juvenil logró su primer título en Futures, donde se cargó con cuatro preclasificados, Migani (1), Noviski (8), Amado y el sexto favorito en la final.

El nacido en Santiago del Estero había logrado su primer punto ATP la semana pasada en el torneo de Villa del Dique al ganarle en la primera ronda a Gastón Briano por un doble 6-4.

Ya con el trofeo de Villa María y el primer triunfo en Villa Del Dique, Marco contará con 13 puntos en el Ranking ATP.

Oznaczenia fal:
i, iii, iii, a, b, c (zielone) - Sub Minuette
1, 2, 3, a, b, c (czerwone) - Minuette
i, iii, iii, a, b, c (niebieskie bold) - Minute
1, 2, 3, A, B, C (różowe bold) - Minor
(1), (2), (3), (a), (b), (c) (zielone) - Intermediate
1,2,3, A,B,C w kółkach (niebieskie bold) - Primary
I, II, III, A,B,C (czerwone bold) - Cycle
(I), (II), (III), (A), (B), (C) (niebieskie bold) - Super Cycle

COPPER:

Na miedzi sytuacja falowa bez zmian, niemniej ostatnie wzrosty mogą zanegować hipotezę o zakończeniu fali (c). Możliwe, że rynek będzie chciał jednak dojść do pełnego zasięgu wynikającego z równości (a)=(c). Gdyby tam kurs się nie zatrzymał do gry wejdzie wersja pierwsza oznaczeń.

Komentarz pozostaje w mocy. Można jedynie dodać, że w grze jest również modyfikacja drugiej wersji z klinem kończącym jako piąta fala. Tu jednak dziwnie zachowuje się ostatnia fala spadkowa, która powinna dotrzeć do dolnego ograniczenia klina, tymczasem zwiedza północne pułapy. Możliwe, że jednak zawróci i zrobi co trzeba.

CRUDE:
V1:

V2:

Na Crude dwie wersje szerzej opisane w zeszłotygodniowych Fusach. Na razie obie formalnie poprawne. Trzeba trzymać kciuki za pierwszą z nich. Ewidentnie widać euforyczne nastroje na tym rynku. Nawet dość gwałtowne umocnienie zielonego w czwartek niewiele przyniosło szkód bykom. Ale to dobrze. Euforia i panika to przeciwne pętle linii tramwajowej północ-południe.

DJIA:

Na DJIA wg mnie nadal brakuje fali spadkowej kończącej impuls. Po jego zakończeniu oczekuję korekty wzrostowej. Zagadką pozostaje długość tej ostatniej falki. Podręcznikowo w tak wydłużonej fali wszystkie podfale są mniej więcej równe co do długości (trójka nie może być najkrótsza rzecz jasna).

SP500:

Patrz komentarz do DJIA

DAX:

DAX wygląda jakby zakończył impuls spadkowy. Na interwale 10min można od biedy dopatrzyć się nawet piątki wzrostowej wyrysowanej 3 lipca. Jeżeli tak jest w istocie to po zakończeniu korekty powinna czekać nas co najmniej jeszcze jedna piątka do góry. Co ciekawe korekta zniosła więcej niż 62% domniemanego impulsu wzrostowego co wyklucza zigzaga abc. Idąc dalej tym tropem powinna być to więc fala 2 w 5 a cała fala powinna mieć strukturę 5-3-5-3-5, a więc nie dwie a trzy piątki wzrostowe. Poprawienie minimów anuluje powyższe rozważania.

NIKKEI:

NIKKEI dotarł do 50% zniesienia ostatnich wzrostów. Formalnie więc można tu oczekiwać zakończenia fali B. Nie wyklucza to wszakże pogłębienia spadków w okolice 62%, tym bardziej, że do zakończenia c w B różowe brakuje jednej podfali.

BOVESPA EOD:

BOVESPA moim zdaniem zakończyła falę (c) w 4. Nie mam niestety danych intraday żeby to potwierdzić. Potwierdzeniem hipotezy byłoby wyrysowanie solidnego białego korpusu na interwale EOD

FW20:

Najpierw znany wykres EOD - Surge or die! - niestety zasięgi pokazane na wykresie zostały przekroczone. Albo zawrócimy natychmiast, albo fala piąta wejdzie w inną relacje Fibonacciego w stosunku do pierwszej. Liczyłem na zatrzymanie spadków w tej okolicy ale wygląda na to, że bez paniki zatrzymania nie będzie. Zakładając, że oznaczenia są poprawne, gdybyśmy nagle nie zawrócili kolejna relacja to 5 = 162% x 1. To daje poziom ok 2250.

Trzeba też pamiętać o wersji drugiej oznaczeń szerzej opisanej w poprzednich Fusach, a która z każdym spadkiem staje się coraz bardziej prawdopodobna. Ale i w takim przypadku jakaś korekcina w postaci fali drugiej się należy jak psu buda.

60 min:

5 min:

Na indeksie bazowym wygląda to mniej więcej tak:

60 min:

MW40:

Tu beznamiętnie zmierzamy ku panice. Bez niej chyba nie ma co liczyć na zatrzymanie. Im szybciej ona nastąpi tym lepiej. Nie wiem tylko czy jej się rzeczywiście doczekamy. Przypominam, że spadki nie były poprzedzone euforią. Jakiś przełom jednak musi nastąpić. Rynek da nam znak, którego nie będzie sposób nie zauważyć. Marobuzu z potrójnym objęciem hossy byłoby spoko myślę ;)

WIG:

Patrz komentarz do MW40.

EXTRASY:
SHANGHAI:

Tu koniec impulsu spadkowego jest wg oznaczeń tuż tuż.

YEN/USD:

Sytuacja falowa bez zmian.

SOJAOIL

Na SOJAOIL zanegowano moje poprzednie oznaczenia. Niestety będę upierał się nadal przy tym, że rysujemy falę B. Po prostu bez wprowadzenia subfal typu 1 w 1 w xxx ciężko wzrosty od kwietnia rozpisać jako impuls. Fale zachodzą na siebie a to wskazuje na korekcyjny charakter ruchu. Nowa propozycja poniżej:

EDEK:

Sytuacja falowa bez zmian.

BSE 30:

Tu wg mnie zakończono ruch korekcyjny abc stanowiący falę (a) większej struktury korekcyjnej - może wchodzić w rachubę Flat, Triangle lub inne złożone g...

Tyle ode mnie.

Pozdrawiam serdecznie
LeM

Lugar: Córdoba Capital, Argentina.
Fecha: Desde el 05 de Julio.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Qualy.

Primera Ronda

[1] Federico Del Bonis (ARG) Bye
Alfonso Gallo (URU) a Diego Prado (ARG) 3-6/6-3/6-3 
Agustín Siga (ARG) a Marcos Remondegui (ARG) 7-5/7-5 
Andrés Ceppo (ARG) a Juan Giles (ARG) 6-4/1-6/6-3
[2] Dennis Zivkovic (USA) Bye
Juan Londero (ARG) a Rodrigo Albano (ARG) 7-5/7-6(1) 
Lucas Tocci (ARG) a Pablo Migani (ARG) 6-3/3-6/6-0
Rodrigo Gomez Saigos (ESP) a Nicolás Bulacio (ARG) 7-5/3-6/6-2
Pablo Perez (ARG) Bye
Ezequiel Romero (ARG) a Andrés Stecher (ARG) 6-0/6-1
Giuliano Pelorosso (ARG) a Pablo Canel (ARG) 7-5/6-2 
Patricio Heras (ARG) a Marcos Treglia (ARG) 7-5/6-1
[WC] Bruno Hamann (ARG) Bye
Damián Rossi Pittau (ARG) a Ariel Caggiano (ARG) 7-5/5-7/6-1
Javier Ottaviani (ARG) a Patricio Mercuri (ARG) 6-1/6-3 
Matías Di Pasquale (ARG) a Joaquín Rodriguez (URU) 6-2/6-1
Alexis Adami (ARG) Bye
Leonel Videla (ARG) a [WC] Jorge Montero (CHI) 6-2/6-1
[WC] Ezequiel Dequino (ARG) a Renzo Rovetto (ARG) 6-0/6-0
Juan Orueta (ARG) a Juan Seminara (ARG) 3-6/6-0/6-3 
[WC] Sebastián Lautre (ARG) a Agustín Sastre (ARG) 6-2/6-0
Lucas Sosa (ARG) a Christian Alvero (ARG) 6-2/6-0
Franco Scaravilli (ARG) a Ignacio Cilibrizzi (ARG) 7-5/6-3 
[WC] Juan Vazquez Valenzuela (ARG) a Mateo Galdón (ARG) 6-1/6-2
Juan Camilloni (URU) a Damián Kapitula (ARG) 6-2/6-2 
[WC] Bruno Mazziotti (ARG) a [WC] Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 7-5/6-2
Martín Brocal (ARG) a Maximiliano Gurmandi (ARG) 6-2/6-2
Marco Sobarzo (CHI) a Matías Moyano (ARG) 6-7(4)/6-2/6-1 
Eduardo Ordoñez (ARG) a Agustín Moyano (ARG) 6-4/6-1 
Federico Iraola (ARG) a Gabriel Najle (ARG) 3-6/6-3/6-3 
Horacio Giusanni (ARG) a Matías Vittori (ARG) 6-1/6-2
David Catala (ESP) a Matías Bekerman (ARG) 0-6/6-4/6-4 

Segunda Ronda

[1] Federico Del Bonis (ARG) a Alfonso Gallo (URU) 6-1/6-4
Andrés Ceppo (ARG) a Agustín Siga (ARG) 7-6(4)/6-3
[2] Dennis Zivkovic (USA) a Juan Londero (ARG) 6-0/6-2
Rodrigo Gomez Saigos (ESP) a Lucas Tocci (ARG) 4-6/7-6(6)/7-5
Pablo Perez (ARG) a Ezequiel Romero (ARG) 7-5/3-6/6-2
Giuliano Pelorosso (ARG) a Patricio Heras (ARG) 4-6/6-3/6-1
[WC] Bruno Hamann (ARG) a Damián Rossi Pittau (ARG) 7-6(3)/6-1
Javier Ottaviani (ARG) a Matías Di Pasquale (ARG) 6-4/7-6(3) 
Leonel Videla (ARG) a Alexis Adami (ARG) 6-3/6-2
[WC] Ezequiel Dequino (ARG) a Juan Orueta (ARG) 6-1/6-2
Lucas Sosa (ARG) a [WC] Sebastián Lautre (ARG) 6-2/6-4 
[WC] Juan Vazquez Valenzuela (ARG) a Franco Scaravilli (ARG) 6-1/6-4
[WC] Bruno Mazziotti (ARG) a Juan Camilloni (URU) 6-3/6-1
Martín Brocal (ARG) a Marco Sobarzo (CHI) 6-1/6-1
Eduardo Ordoñez (ARG) a Federico Iraola (ARG) 6-3/7-6(3) 
Horacio Giusanni (ARG) a David Catala (ESP) 6-2/6-4

Ronda Clasificatoria

[1] Federico Del Bonis (ARG) a Andrés Ceppo (ARG) 7-5/6-1
[2] Dennis Zivkovic (USA) a Rodrigo Gomez Saigos (ESP) 6-2/6-2
Pablo Perez (ARG) a Giuliano Pelorosso (ARG) 5-7/7-6(4)/6-3
Javier Ottaviani (ARG) a [WC] Bruno Hamann (ARG) 6-1/6-0 
[WC] Ezequiel Dequino (ARG) a Leonel Videla (ARG) 7-6(6)/2-0 ret.    
[WC] Juan Vazquez Valenzuela (ARG) a Lucas Sosa (ARG) 6-3/6-0
[WC] Bruno Mazziotti (ARG) a Martín Brocal (ARG) 3-6/6-4/6-3
Horacio Giusanni (ARG) a Eduardo Ordoñez (ARG) 6-2/6-4

Walter Lukken -Chief Liar, CFTC

Another CNBC non-first: Walter Lukken, Chairman and Chief Liar of the CFTC (the criminals who 'regulate' futures speculation), came on CNBC for a well orchestrated lying session where he said, "We have limits and controls in place, and it seems that they are working well."

That is to say, these stratagems are working well for Mr. Lukken, his friends, and his masters in the Bush Administration's last days as they all clean up through their proxies in the NYMEX Pit.

How can this man sleep at night? How can he say these blatant lies? He has paper traders, under his nose, inflating the market and taking no delivery of the goods, with a virtual zero margin requirement.

So, as we see, we cannot trust CNBC to challenge any guest after said guest has propagandized to his heart's content. And the CFTC and Lukken? Traitors like this we have not seen since the governmental banking manipulators of the roaring '20s.

Another quote that I couldn't catch the source of on that episode of the CNBC special:

"This type of speculation, where parties participate with no chance or intention of using or taking delivery of the product, is like creating a futures market in pharmaceuticals; life saving drugs whose critical need by the sick and dying manipulated by heartless robbers,  criminals whose only function is to take money out of the market by inflating the price, while the end-user suffers."

Can you imagine a futures market in Insulin? Wait, it might still happen. Whoever put that concept in play is a good person, a truth-teller.

Your average commuter of the working class, and yes, professionals that must take to road? Screwed. How dare you, you evil bastards that propagate this MYTH that paper speculation in crude futures has no effect? You will meet with the judgment of the heavenly tribunal - in  the days to come, when you are infirm and your loved ones have abandoned you.

That is what is happening now - bastard speculators that never touch the oil are merely placing a permanent long position, and whacking 40-60 bucks on the delivery price, and who pays.....you do.

CNBC, you owe us more. Stop taking fast and asking shallow questions and diagram out the horror that is ICE and long contracts - dry, empty, no product no delivery contracts.

Related articles by Zemanta

• Oil leaps to new record high as world stocks tumble
• Talking Business: Easy Target, but Not the Right One
• Oil jumps to new above $142 as equities wilt
• Congress Plans to Tighten Rules on Energy Speculation
• U.S. to Set New Limits on Oil Trade Overseas

ks-agrar-rohstoffbrief-030708

Lots of issues raised in both of these items, one being that of avatars finally getting equal rights in fifty years time, the other illustrating the start of that process where someone wanting to present themselves as an avatar, at least in pictorial form (for very good reasons imho) is not accepted.  The first being futuristic and sci-fi, but the second in the here and now.

Will sociologists and others have a field day now with the diversity issue widened to include avatars as more and more people take on second life businesses and enterprises, related or unrelated to their real world personae?

Konfederak, de tan sólo 16 años, enfrentará al segundo preclasificado, Martín Alund, por un lugar en las semifinales del Future cordobés. Por su parte, el mendocino derrotó a Facundo Bagnis por un doble 6-2.

Otro chico que sigue dando de que hablar es Marco Trunguelitti, quien la semana pasada había logrado su primer punto ATP. El categoría 90 le ganó al máximo candidato, Leandro Migani, por un contundente 6-2 6-3 y en los cuartos de final se medirá contra Lionel Noviski, que hizo lo propio frente a Martín Ríos por 6-2 6-1.

OTROS RESULTADOS:

• Antonio Pastorino (Arg, 4º) a Nicolás Jara Lozano (Arg) por 6-4 y 7-5
• Juan Pablo Amado (Arg, 6º) a Sebastián Uriarte (Arg) por 6-0 y 6-1
• Alejandro Kon (Arg, 5º) a Nicolás Pastor (Arg) por 6-1 y 6-0
• Diego Álvarez (Arg, 3º) a Federico Del Bonis (Arg) por 6-7 (1), 6-0 y 6-1

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: July 3, 2008: 11:06 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Want to help the country save a quick million barrels of oil a day? Drive 5% less. Slow down. Inflate your tires.

Those three steps would reduce U.S. oil consumption by 1.3 million barrels a day immediately, according to the Alliance to Save Energy, a conservation group running an efficiency campaign backed not only by environmental groups but also the auto and oil industries.

That's nearly twice the estimated daily oil production that could come from drilling in the Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, according to the government's Energy Information Administration.

According to Julius Pretterebner, a vehicles and alternative-fuels expert at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consultancy that does a lot of work for the oil companies, how fast people drive and how quickly they accelerate is responsible for 10% to 30% of fuel consumption.

"It's significant, and it's the only thing we can do in the short term," said Deron Lovaas, vehicles campaign director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, which partners with the Alliance to Save Energy on an effort to educate drivers on efficiency.

The United States consumes 20 million barrels of oil a day, nearly 10 million of which goes to making gasoline. The world gobbles up 85 million barrels of oil in all.

Rather than focusing on reducing demand for oil, the debate over the soaring cost of energy in recent weeks has been about boosting supply and more regulation of "speculators."

To boost supply, many want OPEC to bring more crude to market and to open up more U.S. areas to drilling - off the coastlines and in Alaska.

But OPEC countries are already pumping vigorously: Last week, Saudi Arabia could come up with only an additional 200,000 barrels a day. Getting from the country's current output of around 9 million barrels a day to over 12 million barrels a day - their target over the next few years - will take time. Some analysts don't even think it can be done.

As for drilling more in the United States, years or decades are required to build the necessary pumping platforms and pipelines.

Eventually, experts say opening up all the areas currently closed to drilling might yield between 1.5 million and 3 million barrels a day, although those numbers are extremely rough estimates.

"Some of those conservation barrels can be had cheaper than the drilling barrels," said Samantha Gross, an oil analyst at Cambridge. "It has an immediate effect, and it's happening."

When it comes to restrictions on energy investors, there are several bills in Congress that would curb so-called speculation. But it's highly debatable what impact that would have. Several studies show commodities that are not traded on open exchanges have risen just as fast as oil, suggesting speculators are not unduly driving up the price of crude.
Long-term solutions

Long-term conservation strategies could be even more effective at easing the stress caused by energy costs.

Combined with short-term fixes, efforts like raising fuel-efficiency standards and using more biofuels could ultimately save nearly 5 million barrels of oil a day.Down the road, more electric cars could boost that number substantially.

In late 2007, Congress raised fuel-efficiency standards for the first time in 30 years. Cars will be required to get 35 miles a gallon by 2020, up from about 25 miles a gallons today.

That move, along with less driving due to higher prices, is expected to reduce oil use by a million barrels a day by 2020, according to Cambridge.

The Natural Resources Defense Council is pushing for even higher fuel economy standards - 50 miles a gallon by 2030. That move, they say, would save over 2 million barrels of oil a day.

Mandates to use ethanol in gasoline - if met - would displace an additional 1.3 million barrels of gas a day, which is roughly equivalent to 1.3 million barrels of oil, according to Cambridge.

The total of nearly 5 million barrels in savings a day is still just a small amount of total global consumption in a world where energy demand is rising rapidly, so conservation alone shouldn't be expected to drastically bring down the price of oil. But as Natural Resources' Lovaas said, "It is likely to keep prices from rising so fast."

Then there are electric vehicles. Cambridge estimates that by 2020, 6% of the cars sold in the United States will be electric cars that have on-board gas engines to charge the batteries. As there would be so few of them on the road, the savings in oil would be relatively small.

But if the entire car fleet were switched to electric, that could put a major dent in oil use and cause prices to drop substantially.Cambridge said gasoline use would plummet by 70% in the United States if all passenger vehicles were electric, while electricity consumption would rise by just one-sixth.
The way we live

Of course, it's not just what people drive that uses gas - it's how much they're driving.

Reducing gas use will also depend on getting people to drive less. And that will require moving people closer to work, or work closer to people. In other words, better urban planning.

"This is a very significant element," said Mark Muro, policy director at the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program. "When people go about their business, they need to have short trips."

A future fuel-efficient city could include denser development, expanded mass transit, and mixed use zoning to allow business and stores to be located in the same neighborhoods where people live, said Muro.

"It will take time, but we're going to need all the savings we can get," he said.

Speaking of all the savings we can get, none of these conservation efforts need to be done independently of actively looking for more energy or seeking alternatives to oil. In a world of high prices, strong demand and limited supply, the nation may decide it needs to both use less and drill more.

Chciałbym zasugerować pewną interpretację tych danych, wskazującą na bardziej optymistyczny (możliwy) stan rzeczy, inny niż to widzą (zaślepione) rynki: rafinerie w ostatnich tygodniach zwiększały przerób przed zbliżającym się weekendem 4. lipca (peak przerobu zaczął się na przełomie maja i czerwca i trwał do tygodnia 6/20), spodziewając się skoku zapotrzebowania; prawdopodobnie taniej i/lub szybciej było im sięgnąć do zapasów niż sprowadzać ropę z zagranicy, co doprowadziło do spadku rezerw; popyt nie zmaterializował się z powodu wzrastającej niechęci Amerykanów do podróżowania, zatem paliwa trafiły do rezerwy, zwiększając ich poziom; import surowca znacząco się nie zwiększył, bo popyt na produkty się zmniejsza, a zapasy produktów i komponentów rosną...

To wstępna analiza, trzeba się przedrzeć przez materiały źródłowe, a te mają 60 stron...

A z innej beczki (baryłki?) - Nymex podnosi wymagania dot. depozytów zabezpieczających koniecznych przy handlu kontraktami na ropę. Inwestorzy będą musieli "podciągnąć" więcej pieniędzy, by utrzymać aktualne i otwierać nowe pozycje, albo zamknąć obecne.

Lugar: Lambare (Great Asuncion), Paraguay.
Fecha: Desde el 07 al 13 de Julio del 2008.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Main Draw.

Primera Ronda

Bruno Tiberti (ARG) a [8] Damian Guichonet (ARG) 6-2/6-3
Juan Manuel Romanazzi (ARG) a [WC] Nicolás Salama (PAR) 6-3/6-2
[Q] Facundo Garade (ARG) a [Q] Caio Claudino (BRA) 7-5/6-3
[6] Juan Pablo Yunis (ARG) a Marco Antonio Rojas (BOL) 6-1/6-1
[Q] Ángel Torres (CHI) a Nicolás Pizzi (ARG) 6-3/6-2
[4] Federico Sansonetti (URU) a [Q] Santiago Romero (ARG) 6-2/6-1
Stanislav Ichkov (ARG) a [Q] Emiliano Castellucci (ARG) 5-7/6-2/6-0
[2] Pablo Galdón (ARG) a [WC] Oliver Snaider (PAR) 6-1/6-2

Segunda Ronda:

Rodrigo Perez (CHI) vs Bruno Tiberti (ARG)
[3] Rafael Camilo (BRA) vs Juan Manuel Romanazzi (ARG)
[Q] Facundo Garade (ARG) vs [6] Juan Pablo Yunis (ARG)
[7] Mattia Livraghi (ITA) vs Stanislav Ichkov (ARG)
Diego Matos (BRA) vs [2] Pablo Galdón (ARG)

♣

Dobles.

Primera Ronda:

Galdon (ARG) / Sansonetti (URU) a Garade (ARG) / Rubino (ITA) 6-1/6-1
Guichonet (ARG) / Torres (ARG) a [4] Matos (BRA) / Yunis (ARG) 6-3/6-7(6)/10-4
Rojas (BOL) / Tempesta (ARG) a Martinez (ARG) / Ndlela (ZIM) 6-3/4-6/10-5
Romanazzi (ARG) / Tiberti (ARG) vs Perez (CHI) / Vivanco (ECU)
[3] Bondaz (ITA) / Livraghi (ITA) a Castro (ARG) / Ichkov (ARG) 6-1/6-2

Segunda Ronda:

[1] Bonatto (BRA) / Camilo (BRA) vs Galdon (ARG) / Sansonetti (URU)
Guichonet (ARG) / Torres (ARG) vs Rojas (BOL) / Tempesta (ARG)

[Qualy.]

Lugar: Lima, Perú
Fecha: Desde el 07 al 13 de Julio.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Main Draw.

Primera Ronda

Germán Gaich (ARG) a Dane Fernandez (AUS) 6-3/6-3
[5] Matías Silva (PER) a [Q] Gastón Briano (ARG) 7-5/6-7(5)/6-4
Guillermo Durán (ARG) a [4] Guido Pella (ARG) 6-4/7-5
[Q] Ezequiel Krivulin (ARG) a [Q] Michael Pallares (DOM) 6-0/4-0 Ret.
Mauricio Echazu (PER) a [7] Cristian Benedetti (ARG) 6-1/6-3
Juan Manuel Valverde (ARG) a [Q] Eduardo Ramirez (ARG) 5-7/6-2/6-3
[3] Iván Endara (ECU) a [Q] Gustavo Sterin (ARG) 2-6/7-5/6-2
[6] Benjamin Dracos (FRA) a Gonzalo Tur (ARG) 6-1/6-0
[2] Alejandro Kon (ARG) a [Q] Thomas Michaud (FRA) 3-6/6-1/6-2

Segunda Ronda:

[1] Carlos Avellan (ECU) a Germán Gaich (ARG)
Guillermo Durán (ARG) vs Mauricio Doria Medina (BOL)
[Q] Ezequiel Krivulin (ARG) vs [8] Miguel Cicenia (VEN)
Mauricio Echazu (PER) vs Juan Manuel Valverde (ARG)
Valerio Carrese (ITA) vs [2] Alejandro Kon (ARG)

♣

Dobles.

Primera Ronda:

[1] Doria Medina (BOL) / Kon (ARG) a Briano (ARG) / Gaich (ARG) 6-4/7-6(4)
Tur (ARG) / Valverde (ARG) a [4] Galdos (PER) / Pella (ARG) 6-2/6-7(4)/10-6
Benedetti (ARG) / Duran (ARG) a Chavez (PER) / Lapentti (ECU) 6-4/6-4

Segunda Ronda:

[1] Doria Medina (BOL) / Kon (ARG) vs Carrese (ITA) / Makiguchi (BOL)
Rasposo De Oliveira (PER) / Saavedra-Corvalan (CHI) vs Tur (ARG) / Valverde (ARG)
Benedetti (ARG) / Duran (ARG) vs [2] Echazu (PER) / Silva (PER)

[Qualy.]

Fuente: www.atperu.org/foro

Lugar: Carpi, Italy.
Fecha: Desde el 07 al 13 de Julio del 2008.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Singles.

Primera Ronda:

[6] Juan Pablo Villar (ARG) a [Q] Giacomo Oradini (ITA) 4-6/6-4/7-5

Segunda Ronda:

[6] Juan Pablo Villar (ARG) vs [Q] Patrick Prader (ITA)

♣

Dobles.

Primera Ronda:

Marchegiani (ITA) / Wolf (ITA) a [4] Perez - Perez (ESP) / Villar (ARG) 6-3/3-6/11-9

_

Lugar: Romerberg, Germany
Fecha: Desde el 07 al 13 de Julio del 2008.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Singles.

Primera Ronda:

Agustin Tarantino (ARG) a Jakub Praibis (CZE) 7-6(3)/6-0
Andres Begemann (GER) vs Gaston Arturo Grimolizzi (ARG)

Segunda Ronda:

Agustin Tarantino (ARG) vs [espera rival]

♣

Dobles.

Primera Ronda:

[4] Grimolizzi (ARG) / Tarantino (ARG) a Becker (GER) / Gast (GER) 6-2/6-4

Segunda Ronda:

[wc] Georgescu (ROU) / Torebko (GER) vs [4] Grimolizzi (ARG) / Tarantino (ARG)

Lugar: Lambare (Great Asuncion), Paraguay.
Fecha: Desde el 07 al 13 de Julio del 2008.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Qualy.

Primera Ronda

[5] Nicolás Pastor (ARG) Bye
Federico Casabone (ARG) Bye
Emiliano Castellucci (ARG) Bye
Joaquín Tempesta (ARG) Bye
Santiago Romero (ARG) a Franco Norambuena-Cox (CHI) 6-3/3-6/6-0
Luciano Carluccio (ARG) a Darío Acosta (URU) 6-4/2-6/6-3
Juan Agustín Alessio (ARG) a Matías Tello (ARG) 6-4/4-6/6-2
Francisco Aparicio (ARG) a Guillermo Harrison (PAR) 7-6(1)/6-0
Fabricio Varas (ARG) a Eduardo Muñoz (PAR) 6-2/3-6/6-1
Luciano Daher (ARG) a Matías Castro (ARG) 7-6(6)/7-6(1)
Santiago Celia (ARG) a Luciano Celia (ARG) 6-2/6-4
Facundo Garade (ARG) a Martin Miedzowicz (URU) 6-1/6-2
[WC] Matias Sborowitz (CHI) a Alejandro Martinez (ARG) 6-3/6-2
[WC] Ricardo Mena (PER) a Leandro Torres (ARG) 4-6/6-2/6-2
Ciao Claudino (BRA) a Emiliano García Blanksman (ARG) 6-3/6-0
Enzo Pigola (PAR) a [WC] Juan Manuel Marucco (ARG) 6-3/6-0
Diego Galeano (PAR) a Gonzalo Segovia (ARG) 6-3/6-2

Segunda Ronda:

Facundo Garade (ARG) a [5] Nicolás Pastor (ARG) 5-7/6-3/6-4
Santiago Romero (ARG) a Joaquín Tempesta (ARG) 6-1/6-2
Emiliano Castellucci (ARG) a Marcus Yu (USA) 6-1/6-1
Luciano Daher (ARG) a Guilherme Barbato (BRA) 6-2/6-1
Santiago Celia (ARG) a Claudio Coronel (PAR) 6-1/6-3
Federico Casabone (ARG) a [WC] Matias Sborowitz (CHI) 6-1/7-5
[1] Laurent Bondaz (ITA) a Luciano Carluccio (ARG) 6-1/6-2
Alex Theiler (CHI) a Juan Agustín Alessio (ARG) 6-1/6-4
[WC] Aaron Dujovne (CHI) a Francisco Aparicio (ARG) 6-1/6-1
Oscar Lopez (CHI) a Fabricio Varas (ARG) 6-4/6-3

Tercera Ronda:

Santiago Romero (ARG) a Enzo Pigola (PAR) 6-1/6-3
Facundo Garade (ARG) a Federico Casabone (ARG) 6-1/6-4
Emiliano Castellucci (ARG) a Oscar Lopez (CHI) 6-3/6-2
Ciao Claudino (BRA) a Luciano Daher (ARG) 6-4/6-1 
[WC] Ricardo Mena (PAR) a Santiago Celia (ARG) 6-2/6-1

Lugar: Lima, Perú
Fecha: Desde el 07 al 13 de Julio.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Qualy.

Primera Ronda

Leandro Savelli, Gastón Briano, Ezequiel Krivulin, Ramiro Arias Moreno obtuvieron un Bye.
Fernando Bibiloni (ARG) a Carlos Caravedo (PER) 6-0/6-1
Roberto Ramirez (ARG) a Arturo Salas (MEX) 6-0/6-0
Gustavo Sterin (ARG) a Víctor Córdova (PER) 6-0/6-0
Ariel Lucero (ARG) a Yevgeny Perepelov (USA) 6-0/6-2
Leandro Veraldi (ARG) a Giorgio Alessandrini (PER) 6-2/6-1
Cesar Torres (PER) a Stefano Licata (ARG) 5-7/7-6(0)/6-0
Duilio Beretta (PER) a Santiago Maccio (ARG) 6-3/6-2 
Leonardo Ramirez (PER) a Juan Manuel Argañaras (ARG) 6-2/3-6/6-1

Segunda Ronda

Gustavo Sterin (ARG) a Sergio Monges (PER) 6-0/6-3
Ariel Lucero (ARG) a [4] Luis Ramos (PER) 7-6(5)/7-5
Ramiro Arias Moreno (ARG) a Rodrigo Rappaccioli (NCA) 1-6/6-4/7-5
[7] Ezequiel Krivulin (ARG) a Duilio Beretta (PER) 6-3/7-5
Roberto Ramirez (ARG) a Carlos Galvez (ECU) 6-3/6-2
[5] Gastón Briano (ARG) a Jason Pinsky (USA) 6-4/6-2
Cesar Torres (PER) a Leandro Veraldi (ARG) 6-4/4-6/6-4 
Bruno Snyder (USA) a [1] Leandro Savelli (ARG) 6-1/2-0 ret. 
Thomas Michaud (FRA) a Fernando Bibiloni (ARG) 7-6(5)/6-2

Ronda Clasificatoria

Gustavo Sterin (ARG) a [3] Sergio Rojas (PER) 5-7/6-4/7-6(4)
[7] Ezequiel Krivulin (ARG) a Nicolás Kauer (CHI) 6-3/6-1
[5] Gastón Briano (ARG) a José Velasco (BOL) 6-4/3-2 ret.
Roberto Ramirez (ARG) a Renzo Airaldi (PER) 6-4/6-3
Ariel Behar (URU) a Ariel Lucero (ARG) 7-5/7-6(8 )
[2] Bret Ross (USA) a Ramiro Arias Moreno (ARG) 6-2/6-1

Fuente: www.atperu.org/foro/

Lugar: Bourg-en-Bresse, France.
Fecha: Desde el 07 al 13 de Julio.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Qualy.

Julian Rodriguez no podia en la qualy, luego de pasar la primera ronda por un Bye, se enfrentaba en segunda ronda a Nicolas Beuque, frances, quien le ganaria en dos mangas, por 1-6/2-6.

Lugar: Ribeirao Preto, Brasil.
Fecha: Desde el 30 de Junio al 06 de Julio del 2008.
Superficie: Polvo de Ladrillo.

Main Draw.

Primera Ronda:

[6] Juan Pablo Yunis (ARG) a [Q] Raphael Pfister (BRA) 6-2/6-2
[8] Matías Saenz (ARG) a [Q] Gabriel Wanderley (BRA) 2-6/7-6(2)/6-2
Juan Romanazzi (ARG) a [Q] Víctor Maynard (BRA) 6-0/7-6(2)

Segunda Ronda:

[6] Juan Pablo Yunis (ARG) a Juan Romanazzi (ARG) 6-2/7-6(2)
[8] Matías Saenz (ARG) a Joao Costa (BRA) 4-6/7-6(2)/6-4

Cuartos de Final:

[1] Andre Miele (BRA) a [8] Matías Saenz (ARG) 6-3/6-3
[2] Rodrigo Grilli (BRA) a [6] Juan Pablo Yunis (ARG) 2-6/7-5/6-4