In 2006 and amongst 14 AL teams, the New York Yankees were ranked second in batting average (.285), first in on-base percentage (.363), and third in slugging percentage (.461). The team's earned run average was 4.41, which was good enough for sixth best in the AL. In 2007, the pitching was actually worse as the team ranked eight in the league with a 4.49 ERA. However, the hitting was more than exceptional and the Yankees were first in BA (.290), OBP (.366) and SLG (.463). The hitting basically outweighed the many flaws in our pitching corps, whether it was the starting rotation or the bullpen.

In 2008, we have a slightly different story. Now, according to the ERA statistic, the Yankees have the best pitching they've had in 2 years. The team's 4.29 ERA (a 0.20 difference from last year), however, still ranks in the eighth spot amongst the AL, and it demonstrates how much the league's pitching has progressed in general. While our pitching has gotten better (marginally), other teams have also gotten better, and in some cases, much better (Tampa Bay, 14th place last year, 2nd this year). This, of course, could have been offset by our offensive output, yet that department has been the worst it's been in 2 years.

In 2008, the offensive line (collectively) for the Yankees is as follows:

.285/.363/.461
.290/.366/.463
.272/.344/.422

Now, that doesn't look too bad by itself, but it's a dramatic downfall when you compare it to the numbers of the previous years. BA, OBP, SLG, all have fallen and now the Yankees rank fifth (BA), third (OBP), and sixth (SLG) in those respective categories. With the pitching gains in the AL, that can certainly explain some of the downward trend that we have witnessed offensively, although underperformance seems to be the biggest factor. As I see it, batting average isn't necessarily the most important stat here but the bottom has dropped out on the team's OBP and SLG. Robinson Cano can obviously be thanked for part of the drop, but this is a team line and there's definitely a lot of blame to go around. This is why the Yankees are losing. While, their pitching has gotten better, the same can be said for others in the AL. Their hitting has helped them to overcome that issue in recent years, however, this year, the hitting has been their Achilles heal.

*Note--All data found via Baseball-Reference

How poor are they who have not patience!  What wound did ever heal but by degrees? --William Shakespeare, "Othello"

If you talk to certain Cub fans, or get a steady diet of Len and Bob, the conventional wisdom is that this year's Fukudome-inspired Cubs are more patient.  We take more pitches, get better pitches to hit, and get on base more.  Let's look at some data.  Here are Cubs' pitches per plate appearance over the last few years:

Player    2008  2007  2006
Fukudome  4.39   --    --
Edmonds   4.20  3.89  4.07
Fontenot  4.08  3.93   --
Ramirez   4.07  3.67  3.71
Lee       3.99  4.02  4.45
Soto      3.94  3.90  3.38
DeRosa    3.91  3.96  3.70
Theriot   3.73  3.53  3.65
Soriano   3.52  3.67  3.90

Ramirez, Theriot, Edmonds, and Fontenot all got noticeable bumps from '07 to '08.  The rest stayed roughly the same, with Soriano falling off a bit.  (Fukudome is currently third in #P/PA in MLB, behind Swisher and Dunn.)  So, maybe there is some truth to the theory.

As far as overall team stats go, the Cubs are on pace for 655 walks this season and a .360 OBP (both 1st in the NL), versus 500 BB and .333 OBP in 2007 (15th and 9th), and 395 BB and .319 OBP in 2006 (both last).

Batting (based OPS) as of 14 July 2008:

The ageless 40 year old wonder and world record holder for most consecutive innings played, Tomoaki Kanemoto of the Hanshin Tigers, is the NPB OPS leader. His career line sits at around .300/.400/.550 (in healthy seasons), so while his performance is amazing, it is not totally unexpected. He is one of the few players on the batting leaders board who is not on the the Team Japan preliminary roster of 39 players, so his presence on the Tigers during the Olympics will be important in keeping the team's big lead over its CL opponents.

Norichika Aoki of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows makes an appearance on the leader board after missing some time with injury, he's been on a tear lately and have continued to display his developing power with .578 SLG even in the expanded Jingu Stadium outfield. With his current hot back Aoki has pretty much cemented his place as the starting CF on Team Japan at Beijing. He will be hugely missed by the young and vulnerable Swallows during the Olympics though.

Yokohama BayStars Seiichi Uchikawa's breakthough season seems to be the real thing as he's played in 70 games already and keeps on sticking around the leaderboard. He's a career .290/.330/.420 hitter though with consistent AVG and OBP while seeing some fluctutations in SLG (.363 - .515), so either he's altered his swing mechanics or approach at the plate to see some drastic results, or this is quite a fluke season. When I run across some interview with him I guess I'll know.

Pitching leaders (starters, based FIP) as of 14 July 2008:

Toshiya Sugiuchi of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks continues to dominate NPB in FIP but just isn't getting the run support, luck, and defense to rack up the wins like his fellow leaders Iwakuma (Eagles), Lewis (Carp), and Darvish (Fighters). Sugiuchi's K/BB sits at an astonishing 7.21 (Yup, that's a 7 there in the first digit!) He's cranked up his K rate to above 9 (his pre-2005 level) and simultaneously cut down on the number of walks issued.

Masahiro Tanaka's not getting his due what with his ERA over 3 and the 6-6 record, but he is contributing his share to the Eagles, though not quite at Iwakuma's level. The Eagles have the second best run differential in the PL with +48 but are currently sitting in 5th place and out of the playoff picture. The team needs to learn how to win close games (or how to keep the lead?)

Of the rest of the leaderboard, only Iwata, Kawakami, and Naruse are Olympic hopefuls while Utsumi, Komatsu, Greisinger, and Shimizu will be staying on the archipelago to give their clubs an edge during the Olympic month.

初めてこのシリーズを本格的にプレーしてる（PS2版は面倒になってすぐ挫折した）けど出塁率、長打率、OPS、WHIPとかが含まれていて、スタッツの扱いが今までの国産野球ゲームで一番頼りになりそうに見える。でも、選球眼＋長打力重視の初期マネーボールタイプの球団を、１シーズン目という限定された環境の中で構築したはずなんだけど、なかなか四球を選んでくれない（それともピッチャーが現実よりストライクを投げすぎるのか、球数が現実よりかなり少なめに感じられるのは、ストライクゾーンコントロール重視のチームとしては不満…）。

でもホームランはポンポン打ててるから、それは得点と共にリーグ１位。でもダントツで投手陣がヘボすぎるので（他チームは皆防御率３．００以下なのに、自分のヤクルトだけ何故か４．５０前後）なので、チームも当然ビリ。まあ、来シーズン投手にテコ入れすれば、一気にプレーオフ（クライマックスシリーズね）を目指せそう。他の人のレビュー読んでると、なんかやきゅつくシリーズの中では、難易度が易しい方らしい。まあ、DSだからってのもあるだろうけど、 PS2版よりはとっつきやすい印象（携帯機というのにも合っている種類のゲームだと思う）、サクサク進むので軽くハマってしまいました。うー、でも打てるキャッチャーも欲しい、一年目でいきなり田淵とか長嶋がドラフト候補として現れてきた…

The Seattle Mariners are in a sorry state right now, and it sounds like the interim manager wants to keep it that way.

His comments regarding the playing time of a certain Willie Bloomquist:

"We need to keep his energy in the game," manager Jim Riggleman said. "He adds something to the lineup every time he's out there."

Willie Bloomquist. He of the 0 HR, 5 RBI in 77 AB. Sure, his OBP this year is .367, but his career OBP is a paltry .317 with a SLG of .325. Yes, this is what you need in the Mariners lineup whose team OBP this season is barely above .300. Sigh, maybe someday the 'ners will send Wee Willie out to pasture for good. Until then, enjoy the time remaining Seattlites!

In the other corner a guy with .364 OBP, .358 slugging, and ALREADY ONE(!!!!!?????!?!?!) home run this year.

Oh, and the first guy has an OPS+ of 127 while the second guy has an OPS+ of 97. The average for a major leaguer is 100.

The first guy is a beast who hits baseballs really far.

The second guy was hired by Bill Veeck as a pinch hitter in 1951.

Yeah, I know this is a couple of days late, but these numbers are only missing the Eagles-Giants game yesterday.

Let's look at the Central League first:

Hanshin remain strong, both in the real life standings and in Pythagorean win expectations based on runs scored and runs against. But I'm starting to think that maybe the Tigers record is inflated due to the unusually weak CL this year. With interleague play almost finished CL teams have gone 53-67 against their PL counterparts so far, but then again maybe this is mostly the fault of the pathetic Yokohama BayStars who are 3-17 in interleague and sport a 16-44-1 (.267) record overall. The utter incompetence of the BayStars are probably helping other CL teams look more respectable, and tipping the balance in favour of the PL. With the slumping and injured Giants, the race for 3rd and last playoff spot in the CL is a three horse race between Yomiuri, Carp, and Swallows. (The Swallows getting it done on defence is a bit of a surprise as that's not typically talked about.) The Dragons are doing about as well as expected, no better no less, but they are much stronger now with Kawakami back in full force.

Now onto the Pacific League: 

The Lions continue their dominance, but the reliance on the long ball didn't work against the Tigers as the king of the jungle lost 3 out of 4, getting outplayed by a much better balanced Les Tigres team full of on base monsters (Arai, Akahoshi, and Kanemoto lead the CL, with all three OBPing over .400 and Toritani is no slouch either at .370) and killer relievers in JFK+Watanabe which makes their games 5-6 inning games. So, the Lions fortunes come October may not be so bright as they play Yankee style big ball susceptible to opposition pitching in the playoffs which usually only consist of aces.

I'm beginning to think that the ultra-low scoring Fighters getting it done almost entirely on pitching, defence, and the cavernous Sapporo Dome last year was not a fluke, as they continue to outperform their Pythag expectations (with the staggering .718 Defensive Efficiency, far and away the best in the PL and NPB), winning one close game after another (they're like the winning version of the Padres in this regard). 

The Eagles are for real, they're getting it done both with hitting, pitching, and defence (they, in fact, have the highest Pythag win% in NPB!), I expect them to pull ahead of the Hawks to secure themselves a playoff position and battle the Fighters for 2nd place.

Meet infielder Kazuhiro Hatakeyama. The 26-year-old from Iwate prefecture is currently in his 8th season with the club, and through his first seven seasons he only managed 59 appearances for the top team. His career average at the beginning of this season was an even .200.

It seems as though all those years of patience may have finally paid off for the multi-talented Hatakeyama. He has played both of the corners to help make up for the disappearance of Adam Riggs and the inconsistency of Keizou Kawashima (who, to be fair, was an excellent snag from the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters).

But his greatest asset to the team is undoubtedly his patience at the plate. The guy knows how to get on base. He just reached the 35 game mark in terms of appearances, but he has already managed to get himself into second place on the team in terms of doubles and walks. Furthermore, he has 56 total bases which is good enough for sixth on the team, he's tied for fifth in total hits and rbi's, and his chest-puffing numbers stand at .348 (batting average), .434 (on-base percentage), and .514 (slugging). Those numbers aren't bad (especially the second and third ones!).

His glove still needs a little extra practice, and we're looking forward to the day when he is able to decrease the number of times that he strikes out, but if he keeps his spot in the lineup, then it should be interesting to see how he ends up at the conclusion of the season.

After the jump, where Pena ranks all-time in regards to his inability to hit.

In addition to be being easily the worst player so far this year, Pena is challenging some of the worst hitters in history. Using Adjusted OPS (OPS+) a stat that adjusts OPS (obp + slugging) for the era and  ballpark  effect (this way eras when runs and hits were scarce can be compared to eras where slugging dominated the game), we can find who the worst offensive players were.

This is a list of the worst single-season OPS+'s of all-time (minimum 150 plate appearances and not counting pitchers).

If Tony Pena's season ended today, he would have the 4th worst season of all time with an OPS+ of -1. He's behind a 17 year old shortstop (O' Rourke), possibly the worst career hitter ever in his last and worst season (Bergen), and a player who's career lasted 2 seasons and 248 plate appearances (Anderson). What's more startling is that while none of the players (save for Bergen's 1909 season) in the worst 20 seasons had more than 300 plate appearances, Pena is on pace for over 400.

At the end of this season, Tony Pena could be the worst starting player in history.

Another busy week, so a short poster here. This interleague week's day off was Monday. We have completed the first 2 weeks of interleague play now.

1. Hanshin Tigers(1) 34-17-1 .667

6-4 against PL teams, most importantly winning both games against PL leading Lions at home in Koshien. It'll be interesting to see how they'll fare in the return trip, but this definitely cemented the Tigers place at the top of this ranking.

2. Saitama Seibu Lions(3) 34-21-1 .618

Lost both games to the Tigers (though took the other cats to extra innings in the second game), but split the pair of games against the Dragons at home. 76 homeruns in 56 games is still far outpacing the next best homerest NPB team Dragons with 50 in 53 games and Buffaloes with 46 in 57 games. Bocachica with his amazing .997 OPS is still hitting 9th in the order, because the team's still winning and pro athletes tend to be superstitious (they started him off hitting 9th when he first came back from the minors, understandably). 5-5 in interleague so far. Brazell continues to suck hard in the middle of the order with a .263 OBP and .416 SLG (and he started off the year scorching hot too!), there's absolutely no justification for continuing to let him hit in the 4 spot... other than superstition.

3. Chunichi Dragons(2) 28-22-3 .560

4-6 in interleague competition so far, slowly but steadily falling behind the Tigers in the CL standings and in this ranking as well. Split its games against the Lions, but lost both games to the Fighters, it's never a good sign when you give up 11 runs to the weakest hitting club in the nation.

4. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles(4) 29-26 .527

7-3 in interleague, the team is starting to play up to its Pythagorean expectations (248 - 195 RS - RA), this team is for real. Surprisingly, they're getting all this run scoring (2nd in PL) done while hitting by far the least homeruns in the league at 26.

5. Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters(5) 32-25-1 .561

Team continues to defy Mr. Pythagoras (197 - 192 RS - RA). With the team having played 40% of its game, this is probably real too (again), a repeat of last season. The ability to win low scoring games favours the team in the postseason as well, so I suppose I could/should rank them higher... oh, another 7-3 team in interleague here.

6. Fukuoka Softbank Hawks(7) 30-28 .517

7-3 in interleague. Trailing the Eagles by only half a game, the battle for the final playoff berth in the PL is interesting too. Though this team's propensity of giving up runs (242 RA is by far the worst among the top 4 PL teams) means they should be further back.

7. Hiroshima Toyo Carp(10) 23-25-2 .479

6-4 against PL teams. The team's winning again, doing a good job of keeping the Giants at bay.

8. Tokyo Yomiuri Giants(7) 25-28-1 .472

5-5 interleague record so far. Sunk below the poor Carp in the CL standings though. The team of high rollers continue to sputter along, making it a 3 horse race for 3rd place. 

9. Tokyo Yakult Swallows(6) 22-28 .440

Struggling, with a 3-7 record against PL teams. Guiel's posting a pedestrian .734 OPS, but his BA of .216 is by far the lowest amongst all qualifying CL batters and is acting as a black hole in the lineup. He struck out twice in key plate appearances late in the game that I went to see. He needs to start hitting, and with Aoki back in the lineup, the team has better potential to get back into the playoff race.

11. Chiba Lotte Marines(9) 24-34 .414

Woes continue with 3-7 record in interleague which brought them all the way to the bottom of the PL standings. Can't decide if Bobby's Marines are worse than the Buffaloes, but they've definitely have sunken to the bottom of the heap.

11. Orix Buffaloes(11) 25-32 .439

Hey, 5-5 against the CL, not bad, not bad at all. And managed to climb above the slumping Marines in the PL standings to boot.

12. Yokohama BayStars(12) 15-35-1 .300

Exactly .300! 2-8 against PL teams, so far so bad, as expected.

 In CL we see that defensive competency is actually keeping the Giants and Swallows closer in the standings than they really should be, as the Giants have better pitching but worse ERA due to having the worst defenders in the league (no big surprise here for a team that is always assembled full of sluggers).

In the PL, Fighters have great pitchers, but it's their defense that makes them a winning team (with league leading ERA) despite their pathetic offense (team OBP of .300 is by far the worst in the league). Eagles are for real, with their solid pitching, defense, and league leading .350 OBP and run scoring prowess, they should actually be winning more games than they currently are. Look for them to solidify their playoff position in the coming weeks.

Now let's look at individual batting and pitching leaders in OPS and FIP. I've added their conventional stats for sake of comparison.

 G.G. Sato is still absolutely tearing the cover off the ball, if he continues to hit like this, he'll be needed on Team Japan in Beijing, even though GM Hoshino didn't select him as part of the first set of candidates. Alex Ramirez is hitting .368 with 10 HR at his new home, the homer friendly Tokyo Dome. While not a huge split, he's definitely benefitted from the move to the Big Egg and he's also the only Giant slugger who is currently hitting like he should. Names like Lee, Ogasawara, and Takahashi should be on this list but they're not due to various reasons like underperformance and injuries. Nakajima makes up for his defensive shortcomings (especially poor range) with his superb hitting. There are no NPB middle infielders who come close to him with the bat. And Tuffy Rhodes is the classic proof on this list that the batting average is a misleading indicator. 

In the pitching department, we see that Sugiuchi and Utsumi are not being helped by their defense or run support. Iwakuma's dominating comeback this year is no fluke. Miura, the bancho (big boss) of 'hama, has the tough luck of playing on a .300 team, even if his ERA is a bit misleading, the won-loss record is even more misleading. Similarly Darvish, Naruse, Iwata, and Hoashi may not fully deserve their ERAs in the 1.5-2.1 range, but they're all having good to excellent seasons.

Finally, a look at the Pythagorean win expectations. 

 Just looking at runs scored and allowed sees the Tigers separate themselves from the Dragons, just as in real life. And it makes sense as both teams pitching and defense match up, but the Tigers have the top 4 out of 6 hitters in CL OBP in Akahoshi, Arai, Kanemoto, and Toritani. Giants have started to hit and have been winning more, accordingly, but I guess their early season woes still place them in the same group as the Carp and Swallows. With the continuing slumps and injuries, Yomiuri looks to fight for the 3rd and last playoff spot long into the summer.

Lions just lost the 2 game interleague mini-series against Hanshin in Koshien, showing that without the longball the team may be vulnerable. The Fighters have been punching above their Pythagorean weight due to all the 1 and 2 run wins, just like last year. And we can expect the Eagles to win more, posing a real threat that the Hawks will miss the playoffs for the first time since the system was introduced in 2004.  

Just a cursory glance at what's happening in the NPB beyond the conventional stats, hopefully I'll settle on a good format for this update soon.

1. Hanshin Tigers(1) 28-13-1 .683

Very strong hold on 1st place in CL. With setup man Jeff Williams back from injury, the invincible JFK relief trio (with Kubota, and closer and fireballer Fujikawa) is back together for the first time since opening day. This means that starters really only need to pitch 6 solid innings to give the team a chance to win. Combined this with Akahoshi, Arai, Toritani, and Kanemoto being 1, 2, 4, and 5 in the CL OBP rankings means that this team deserves its record and ranking.

2. Chunichi Dragons(2) 24-16-3 .600

Similar formula as the Tigers with solid pitching (2.79 team ERA good for 2nd after Hanshin's 2.69) and hitters who get on base (Dragons have 5-10th place locked up in CL OBP rankings with Ibata, Woods, Morino, Wada, and Nakamura, respectively). The team's Pythagorean expectations are similar to the Tigers, and its bullpen just as effective. So it shouldn't be a surprise if the Dragons manage to narrow the 3.5 game gap with the Tigers during the upcoming 24 game (2 games each, home and away) interleague period.

3. Saitama Seibu Lions(3) 29-16-1 .644

This team can sure hit. It's sluggers have launched 63 homers in 46 games, far outpacing the 2nd place teams which are the Dragons and Giants both with 45. The PL SLG leaderboard features G.G. Sato on top with .615, and Nakajima and Nakmura in 3rd and 9th. Hiram Bocachica's been playing amazing since his short reconditioning stint down in 2-gun, he now sports 10 HR and 1.086 OPS in only 26 games. He really should replace Craig Brazell in the middle of the lineup, as this man has no plate discipline, walking only 7 times in 198 PA for a miserable .278 OBP. I reckon the league's already figured out that you don't have to throw strikes to him. Since he never displayed any plate discipline in Minor League Baseball, the chances of him suddenly developing this skill here is virtually unlikely, and it'll likely be his downfall. (Bocachica's still hitting 9th(!) and that's a travesty.)

4. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles(4) 22-23 .489

This team can score runs too, with its 203 runs only trailing explosive Seibu's 229. With 166 RA, the team should have a winning record, as amazingly as that sounds for this recent expansion franchise.

5. Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters(7) 25-22 .532

Smoke and mirrors or a continuation of last year's successful small ball? A 152 - 164 RS - RA has been helped by some offensive outbursts this month (finally).

6. Tokyo Yakult Swallows(6) 19-21 .475

Continues to play its near .500 ball, now with the crosstown rival Giants hot on their heels. Aaron Guiel's continued troubles (his OPS is now down to .755) is worrisome as he's the team's lone pure power source. On the other hand, relievers Oshimoto (0 ER in 20 IP!), Matsuoka (0.56 ERA in 17.2 IP), and closer Lim (0.56 ERA and 12 saves in 16 IP) have been shutdown dominant. And starters led by Ishikawa (2.63 ERA in 61.2 IP) have been holding their own.

7. Tokyo Yomiuri Giants(10) 20-23-1 .465

As expected, the Evil Empire have finally started hitting, and winning a little more accordingly. The team's ugly BA in the .230s have been brought up to .250 in the last few weeks, but it's team OBP is still a CL worst .299. Expect the fight for 3rd and final playoff spot against the Swallows to continue, as this team's not in same class with the Tigers and Dragons. Especially with regulars like Lee and Uehara missing.

7. Fukuoka Softbank Hawks(8 ) 23-25 .479

Continuing to plod along like this (similar to the Giants) with 191 - 210 RS - RA, the Hawks are currently fundamentally weaker than the Eagles.

9. Chiba Lotte Marines(5) 21-27 .438

The Marines are in a free fall, as Bobby V's team has gone 4-13 since we last checked in. Probably not what the manager had in mind as he was featured in a student made documentary about him on ESPN.

10. Hiroshima Toyo Carp(9) 17-21-1 .447

Better pitching (3.35 ERA is 3rd in CL) than the Giants, but .364 SLG is worst in CL and the Carp play in an extreme hitter's park! 

11. Orix Buffaloes(11) 20-27 .426

The always injured greybeard slugger Kiyohara hit a homerun... in the minors. Nothing new here, move along.

12. Yokohama BayStars(12) 13-27-1 .325

Yay, the BayStars brought their winning percentage above .300!

I plan on alternating power rankings and a more sabermetric individual performance reviews every other week, unless work or real life puts up too much interference.

Although Japanese baseball is known for its small ball from top to bottom (even though WBC was won with timely big bats), in 2005 NPB and MLB offenses exhibited very similar R/G and OPS numbers, then they diverged rather extremely after that (I don't have NPB data for years before 2005, and wasn't going to go beyond 3 years for analysis anyways, but it looks like a future project).

So, what caused this diversion? Let's take a look at a couple of typical small ball indicators.

So, Japan loves the sacrifice bunt, that's obvious. On most teams of any level from little league to pro, if a runner gets on first, he'll be bunted over. The theory here is that getting that 1st run in the game is paramount because it puts extra pressure on the opponent. When both teams employ this same tactic, you typically end up in a 1 or 2 run game where runs are scored one at a time.

Interestingly, Japan loves smallball and it's even self-proclaimed by the media and management, but MLB teams steal more bases than NPB teams. Perhaps the lower scoring game discourages base stealing because the cost of getting caught is greater. This is something else that can be looked into more depth later. Anyhow PL teams have been stealing more lately, like their MLB counterparts, but unlike their CL cousins whose steals have flatlined.

And finally, a couple of random comparisons.

So, as expected, batting average doesn't really correlate to  run scoring. The difference in walks shows up as part of the difference in OPS. The difference in walk rate could probably be attributed to the lack of power hitters in Japan, so pitchers don't have to worry about getting taken yard except for the cleanup hitters, usually. This allows them to pound the strike zone more instead of nibbling on the corners. But it's only a speculation. With the often high pitch counts (partially attributed to the book here which likes the pitcher throwing a rather obvious ball after getting ahead to 2 strikes in a pitcher's count), I wasn't expecting the difference in walk rate to be this pronounced. Although, it could be a 3 year sample size thing as well. More to look into in the future..

So, nothing conclusive here except the surprise (to me) that MLB and NPB teams were scoring at roughly the same rate in 2005, and the scoring trend has diverged since then to what we see now with often low scoring NPB games. OPS correlates with the run scoring, makes sense. NPB teams have increased their number of bunts over the last 3 years and the total scoring has gone down, hmmm (then again, the lowest scoring team in the PL, the Fighters, won the PL pennant last year on pitching and defense). Stolen bases and batting average don't seem to have much bearing, and walk rate is about as expected from the OPS difference, I guess (kinda contradicting myself, but as I said, there's no conclusion here, and it's late  :P  ). Hey, at least this may help you in adjusting some expectations of Japanese players going to the majors and how they'll perform (individual capabilities to adapt to foreign cultures aside). 

More to come in the future, including internal NPB analysis.. 

Going back to April 7th, the Cubs last 10 wins produced the following offensive output: 10, 6, 7, 6 9, 12, 3, 13, 13, 7. In their 13 wins to date, the Cubs are averaging a whopping 8 runs per game. In 2006, the Cubs offense averaged 4.7 runs per game, 8th in the NL and 18th in MLB. Where has the offensive improvement taken place? Lets look at the key offensive stats. In 2007, the Cubs offense was average, finishing 18th in MLB in OBP (.333), 15th in MLB in slugging (.422) and 15th in MLB in OPS (.754).

In 2008, the Cubs are averaging 6.21 per game. They are 2nd in the NL and 3rd in MLB in runs scored with 118. In 2008, the Cubs offense is near the top of every category, 1st in the NL and 2nd in MLB in OBP (.366), 4th in the NL and 4th in MLB in slugging (.456) and 2nd in the NL and second in MLB in OPS (.822).

The Cubs 13-6 record in April is their best April in recent memory, fueled by the resurgent Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and newcomer Kosuke Fukudome. Six starters have batting averages above .300 and the seventh is hitting .282. Seven starters have an OBP over .408, seven starters have a slugging percentage of over .408 and 7 starters have an OPS over .821. The 8th starter? OF Alfonso Soriano, who is at the bottom of the charts in all categories (.230/.290/.528). How dangerous will the Cubs be offensively, if they maintain this pace and Soriano begins to hit his stride?

But, as we all know, it wasn't all roses for JFMC. He managed to lead the league in strikeouts (164) and had several long bouts of complete ineffectiveness (two RBIs over one 24-game stretch, another eight-game stretch with 0 RBI and two other 6-plus game stretches without an RBI).

Which brings us to today. Cust has 5 RBI, just five hits and one homer so far this year. After opening the season as an everyday player, he appears to at least temporarily be stuck in a platoon, which obviously diminishing his value even further. As much as I love this guy's game, I don't have him in either of my leagues and can't in good conscience recommend stashing him on your bench, unless your roster is huge. I hate to admit it, but it's more than possible that last year he peaked and he'll never approach fantasy relevance again.

Still, JFMC is a great case study, you know, the guys who you are simply forced to take the good with the bad because the good is just so darn ... good.

1. Adam Dunn: Affectionately called the rich man's Jack Cust by me, he is the epitome of a player that you simply have to play no matter what. Will he frustrate you to no end with those 0-for-4, 3K games? Yes, but he'll just as often bust out with games like Wednesday when he went 2-for-3 with a double, a homer, two runs and a walk. He's going to finish the season among the league leaders in HRs, runs, RBI and OBP.

2. Pat Burrell: For a moment, imagine 2003 never happened. Here's a guy who's basically averaged 100 RBI, 30 homers and a .386 OBP over the past five seasons. Again, he can be a very frustrating player, but he's on a tear right now, plays in a great hitter's park and can probably be acquired for pennies on the dollar.

3. Paul Konerko: Has there been a more consistent performer over the past eight years who gets less respect? All he does is slug 35-40 homers, drive in around 100 runs and hit a solid .280 while doing it. So why no love? It's that propensity for slow starts (he was hitting below .200 in mid-May in three of the past five seasons) and the the fact that his numbers are consistent, but relatively unspectacular (he's never hit more than 41 HRs or driven in more than 117). At the same time, he's a guy you can plug in at first and forget about.

4. Adrian Beltre: Like Burrell, pretend one of the past six years didn't happen. But in this case, imagine it was his best, not worst, season: the 2004 aberration that saw Beltre produce 48 homers, 121 RBI and sky-high expectations. Because of that year and the subsequently less impressive seasons he's turned in since then, he's seen largely as a bust. A closer look reveals that while he has long bouts on unproductivity, you can basically count on 25 RBI, 90 RBI and 10 SBs. You're not going to dominate with him as a cornerstone, but he won't kill you either.

5. Felix Hernandez: I've been high on him even before he made his big-league debut. That also means I've been forced to live through his numerous struggles. He's started great this year, and maybe it's the season he keeps his hot start going, but be prepared to tolerate frustrating growing pains. Last year he started 2-0 and looked like the most dominant pitcher in baseball before getting hurt. He came back and was largely ineffective until finally putting it all back together over the last couple months (yet still managed to allow six runs twice his final eight starts). The point, the good will outweigh the bad and he's a potential stud.

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13試合 54打席 11得点 6本塁打 15打点 7四球 0死球 .340/.426/.830（打率／出塁率／長打率） 

ホームラン、打点、長打率は現在セリーグ1位

Here's some pics from a few friends of mine.

That's it.

There are two things I hear from Matsui haters: "He only drives in over 100 RBI every season, because he's protected by the best hitters in baseball.", and "He sucks defensively."

On the defensive tip, he's about league average in every way possible, from his range to his arm. But offensively, he's still one of the best bats in the game. Let me put into perspective what Matsui has done since donning the pinstripes. Let's take a look at what he's done compared to some of these guys who are "protecting him in the line-up", as some know-it-all Yankee fans so eloquently put it.

2003

Hideki Matsui: Batting Average:286, HR:16, RBI:106, OBP:353

Alfonso Soriano: Batting Average:. 290, HR:18, RBI:90, OBP: .338

Jason Giambi: Batting Average: .250 , HR: 41, RBI: 107, OBP: .412

So, I ask: Who's protecting who? He either out-produced, or matched his "lineup protection"
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2004

Hideki Matsu: Batting Average: .298, HR:31, RBI:108, OBP: .390

Alex Rodriguez: Batting Average: .286, HR:36, RBI:106, OBP: .375

Gary Sheffield: Batting Average: .290, HR:36, RBI:121, OBP: .393

During this season, Hideki Matsui drove in more runs than the All Mighty A-rod, and basically stood toe-to-toe with Gary Sheffield.

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2005

Hideki Matsui: Batting Average: .305, HR:23, RBI:116, OBP: .367

Alex Rodriguez: Batting Average: .321, HR:48, RBI:130, OBP: .421

Gary Sheffield: Batting Average: .291, HR: 34, RBI: 123, OBP: .379

Remember this season? It was A-rod's "magical" MVP campaign. Hell of a season, was it not?

Now, take a look at what Matsui did this season: He drove in 14 less RBI than the "best player of all-time" during Rodriguez's MVP season, and fell only 7 RBI short of Gary Sheffield, one of our generations top sluggers. I'd say Matsui deserves a bit more respect than he gets, dontcha think?

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2006-Injury shortened season. Broke his wrist diving for a fly ball.

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2007

Hideki Matsui: Batting Average: .285, HR:25, RBI:103, OBP: .367

Robinson Cano: Batting Average: .306, HR:19, RBI:97, OBP: .353

Jorge Posada: Batting Average: .338, HR:20, RBI:90, OBP: .426

Alex Rodriguez: Batting Average: .314, HR:54, RBI:156, OBP: . 422

Bobby Abreu: Batting Average .283, HR:16, RBI:101, OBP: .369

Now, obviously A-rod had a monster season--nobody in baseball even came close to matching him. But you have to look at what Matsui did: 25 home runs, drove in 103, even though he missed over 3 weeks of the season and had a knee injury irritating him the entire year.

If Matsui hadn't missed those three weeks, you figure he would've hit 2-5 more home runs, putting his HR total around thirty, and 15-20 more RBI, putting his RBI total at about 120.

Matsui out-produced Cano, he out-produced Posada, he out-produced Abreu. All of these men get more notice and praise than Matsui does. Where's the respect he deserves?

In the two full seasons Matsui, Sheffield and Rodriguez suited up together(2004 and 2005), Matsui drove in a combined 224 RBI, Rodriguez drove in 236 and Sheffield drove in 245. Put that in perspective, will ya? These are two of the best hitters the game has ever seen, and Matsui almost matched them both RBI-for-RBI--even out-produced Rodriguez one season.

Matsui's average RBI total over every 162 games played is 110; Jason Giambi, 112; Bobby Abreu, 97; Gary Sheffield, 108; Alex Rodriguez, 128. Impressive, isn't it?
One last time I ask: Who's protecting who? Give Hideki Matsui the respect that he deserves. He gets the job done.

セイバーメトリクスとは、ただ対象になってるデータ項目が長年重要視されていたものと違うだけで、データ分析自体は前から行われていました。それに、データだけでチームを構成しようとしている球団なんてもちろん存在せず、まだデータ分析とスカウトの目の適切なバランスを探そうとしている過程でしょうね。

投手の勝利数や打者の打点は立派な成績として後世に残りますが、あまりにもチームメイトの能力や運や他の要素に左右される数字なので、将来の成績の予測に使う項目としては信憑性に欠けます。それで運等、選手が直接コントロール出来ない要素をなるべく省いた項目をいろいろと研究して編み出しています。選手年俸が天文学的な数字になってきた時代なので、下手にリスクを冒すより、将来の成績をより正確に読めるように努力していますね、多くの球団は。（それで今まで疎かになっていた守備の指標の研究にかなり力を入れていますが、各球団の企業秘密になってしまっている部分が多いので、残念ながらこれはまだあまり公開されていません。）

あと出塁率については、打数ではなく打席数が分母となる（四死球の時も打者は打席に立ちますので、それを無視してしまう打数という数字では選手の能力を語りきれない）上、野球において一番重要な財産であるアウトを、どれだけ取られないかという成績なので、攻守両側から見て重要性が分かりやすい数字だと思います。セイバー活動での一番の功績が出塁率の重要さをメジャー球団や世間（アメリカの中継では普通に打率や本塁打と並んで表示される事が多くなった）に伝えられた事じゃないでしょうか。

日本へ来てからほぼ毎年3割30本くらい打って100打点以上稼いでいるので、とても確実に成績を残してきているように見られますが、そこから一つ掘り下げた打撃成績のOBP/SLG/OPS（出塁率／長打率／出塁率＋長打率）を見てみますと、2003年のピークの373/616/989 から確実に右肩下がり傾向を維持してきて2006年には289/449/738 まで落ちました。そこで昨季突然メイクミラクルしてしまい、なんと371/569/940 な2007年だったのです。

去年で32才だったのでラミレスが2003年版へ完全復刻したとはとても思えず、2008年の成績はどっちかというと2007年より2006年に近くなると思います。まあ、巨人ならではのリスクを無視した高い買い物であり、ヤクルトが無駄な大金を叩かずに済んだ可能性大なので、燕ファンとしてはこれは嬉しいのか…？（一般ファンからは評価の低い低打率ながら高出塁率＋高長打率型選手の、ガイエルの怪我によるシーズン前半のパンチ力激減が心配だが…）

ラミレス:

http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1354

ホームラン後のパフォーマンスはどれだけヤクルト時代から変わるのかな？